Tropical Storm Nadine (not pictured) – Courtesy: Shutterstock – Image by Triff
Maps indicate that another storm is forming in the mid-Atlantic and may be headed toward Florida as the recovery from Hurricane Milton continues.
A weather phenomenon in the Atlantic that it has called AL94 is being watched by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Florida in case it develops into a tropical storm. It will be called Tropical Storm Nadine if it turns out to be one.
According to Tropical Tidbits’ spaghetti model, AL94 is most likely to move northwest from where it is now, passing north of Antigua and Barbuda and heading toward the Dominican Republic and the southern eastern tip of Cuba. From there, the storm is predicted to move southwest toward Jamaica.
The weather models that depict possible tropical cyclone tracks are referred to as spaghetti models. The individual model tracks can look a bit like spaghetti when viewed as a whole. A higher degree of confidence in the storm’s predicted route is indicated if the lines are crowded together.
Since parts of Florida are still recovering from Hurricanes Milton and Helene, which both struck the state within the last month, maps do not yet display the prospective storm moving directly for Florida.
“There are two possible directions for the system: westward into Central America and southern Mexico, and regrettably, toward Florida,” stated Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather. “It is typically very difficult for a tropical system to continue toward the northwest and into Texas this late in the season due to prevailing westerly breezes in that area.”
However, as AL94 approaches Caribbean islands this week, the NWS has warned that it may continue to strengthen into a possible tropical storm.
Over the central tropical Atlantic, a distinct region of low pressure is causing sporadic thunderstorms and showers. In its most recent statement, which was released at 2 a.m. ET on October 15, the NWS stated that development is unlikely over the next few days because this system is still trapped in a dry air environment.
But by the middle to late part of this week, the system is predicted to shift largely westward and the weather will improve enough to support a slow development. As the system starts to move west-northwest and gets closer to the Leeward Islands later this week, a tropical depression might form.
Additionally, according to the NWS, AL94 has a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours, and that probability increases to 60 percent over the next seven days.
The storm is “moving into an area that climatologically isn’t the most favorable for tropical development,” according to Weather Channel meteorologist Robb Ellis, but he added that it “certainly isn’t uncommon for a tropical system to develop as it is moving closer to the Antilles.”
Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, and Helene were all “influenced by the abnormally warm water in this region so far this season,” according to Accuweather, while Hurricanes Francine and Milton formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico due to similar conditions.
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Mike has more than 30 years of experience in marketing and public relations. He once owned his own agency and has worked with some of the largest brands in the world.
