NHC Overview of tropical disturbance – Courtesy: Shutterstock – Image by lavizzara
Orlando, Florida – Off the southeast coast of the United States, the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a possible disturbance in the Atlantic.
The NHC 2025 Atlantic hurricane season’s first official tropical prognosis is this one. Tropical Storm Alvin was the first storm to go through the Pacific, and a second disturbance is currently under observation.
There isn’t much worry about this possible disruption for Florida. If it were to form, the FOX 35 Storm Teams predict that it would move up the southern U.S., away from Florida.
Over the following few days, a low-pressure system is expected to develop close to or just offshore of the southeast coast of the United States, which includes the eastern coast of Florida.
In a 2 p.m. advisory on Monday, the NHC stated that “if the system stays offshore, the low could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.”
Over the next seven days, the system has a slim probability of developing—roughly 10 percent. According to FOX 35 Storm Meteorologist Noah Bergren, the system will most likely turn into a short-lived depression rather than a tropical storm.
Would Florida be affected by this possible disruption?
Local viewpoint:
Even if the system is not classified as tropical, Florida may experience a few days of strong onshore winds (25 to 35 mph) from Jacksonville to the Space Coast.
Additionally, it might result in rougher waves from Thursday through Friday and raise the likelihood of thunderstorms within that time frame.
Forecast, Dates, and Predictions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Like previous year, the FOX 35 Storm Team anticipates a high ocean heat content to support the possibility of an above-average season. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1.
Colorado State University (CSU) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) experts have a similar perspective:
We know:
The hurricane forecast from NOAA:
13–19 storms with names
Six to ten hurricanes
Three to five powerful hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)
Hurricane prediction from CSU:
Nine of the 17 tropical storms that are named turn into hurricanes, and four of them reach “major” hurricane strength (Cat. 3 or higher).
How long does a typical hurricane season last?
Overview:
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center reports that during a typical Atlantic hurricane season, there are:
Three “major” hurricanes (Category 3 or above); seven hurricanes; and fourteen designated tropical storms
Why do we anticipate a storm season that is above average?
Look more closely:
The likelihood of an above-average season will be increased by a variety of atmospheric factors.
The pattern of the climate has been changing, and it appears that we will continue to be in the ENSO Neutral Phase. As a result, the Atlantic Basin usually experiences less wind shear, allowing storms to develop and intensify quickly.
The above-normal water temperatures just make that strengthening worse. More tropical systems may spin up as a result of that and the more active Western African Monsoon.
What is the likelihood that a hurricane or tropical storm will hit the United States this year?
The likelihood that a “major” hurricane—a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm—will make landfall in the United States, along the Florida coast, or inside the Gulf Coast is another factor that Colorado State University considers.
– 51% along the whole U.S. coastline (average of 43% between 1880 and 2020).
– 26% for the East Coast of the United States, which includes the Florida peninsula (average: 21% from 1880 to 2020).
From the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, the Gulf Coast accounts for 33% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
56% for the Caribbean (average of 47% from 1880 to 2020).
What are some ways to get ready for hurricane season?
Preparing for any disaster, including the impending hurricane season, is never too early. It’s critical to have a plan, establish emergency communication and information channels, preserve and safeguard critical papers, have extra food and water on hand, and take precautions.
Here are some additional important strategies to get ready for Florida’s hurricane season:
Learn your route and evacuation zone by visiting FloridaDisaster.org.
Download weather apps, register for local alerts, and keep an eye on reliable news sources to stay informed.
– Make arrangements for family members who are at risk, such as elderly or medically dependent relatives, as well as pets.
– In the event of a power outage or loss of access, make a backup of your contacts and crucial digital assets.
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Born and raised in South Florida, Krystal is a recent graduate from the University of Miami with professional writing experience at the collegiate and national news outlet levels. She’s a foodie who loves all things travel, the beach, & visiting new places throughout Florida.