With heavy rain predicted, millions in South Florida are in increased danger of flooding

Tropical Storm Causes Flooding on Streets – Courtesy: Shutterstock – Image by Alexandru Chiriac

With heavy rain predicted for Wednesday and Thursday, seven million residents along Florida’s east coast were placed under a Flood Watch on Tuesday afternoon.

The cities of Melbourne, West Palm Beach, and Fort Lauderdale were included in the Flood Watch, which ran from Cape Canaveral all the way to Miami.

Major forecasting models began indicating on Tuesday morning that there would be a narrow band of heavy rain that might fall anywhere along the metropolitan I-95 corridor, notably from West Palm Beach to Miami, and result in six inches or more of rain.

An area of converging air known as an inverted trough is expected to reach South Florida from the Bahamas and is the first ingredient in the recipe for a possible severe rain event. Showers and thunderstorms are triggered by inverted troughs.

It will be challenging to forecast where the area will see the most rainfall because it will rely on the potential location of a slow-moving frontal boundary that lifts northward from the Keys. This barrier will focus on a region of slow-moving thunderstorms that might train over the same location for hours at a time, causing flash flooding, especially if it stalls.

Flooding problems may be made worse by storms, onshore winds, and periods of the most rain falling on high tide.

Tuesday morning, Florida meteorologists were also warning that conditions similar to this have historically been conducive to large rainfall events, which have the potential to produce high rates of precipitation (1-2 inches per hour) and high totals of rain (6 inches or more) in a short period of time.

It was still possible, as of Tuesday afternoon, for a very specific area between West Palm Beach and Miami to receive six to twelve inches of rain by Thursday afternoon, according to the main forecast models.

The precise location of these maximum rainfall totals cannot be predicted, according to meteorologists, but if all the circumstances are met, the rainfall rates might submerge infrastructure and result in dangerous travel conditions if the rain causes flooded streets.

This part of Florida does not need the rain, with the eastern half of Florida free of drought.

Extreme rainfall occurrences are common in Fort Lauderdale, as evidenced by an event that occurred just this year. It rained 22.5 inches in a single day on April 12 at the airport’s official reporting station. Up to 25 inches of snow were received in some parts of the region. With 14.59 inches of rain on April 25, 1979, the previous record for the wettest calendar day was shattered.

With 98.25 inches of rain falling on the city of Fort Lauderdale so far in 2023, it is also the reason for the wettest year on record. This is over average by 41.91 inches thus far.


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