Special Elections – Pictured: Florida Senate – Courtesy: Shutterstock — Cheri Alguire
Following special elections in Florida next week, Republicans hope to increase their House majority by two seats, providing GOP leaders some leeway in a sharply split legislature. However, they may be waiting for the polls to conclude on Tuesday.
Next week, voters will cast ballots in Florida’s deep-red 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, which were easily won by President Donald Trump in November. Republicans are more competitive as a result of a surge in Democratic funding and early votes, but they still anticipate winning both contests.
Republicans are concerned that unexpectedly close races could support the notion that Democrats are winning the midterm elections next year and that people are rejecting the Trump administration.
The stakes are huge, as Trump himself has stated.
At a tele-town hall Thursday night for Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who is seeking to succeed former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz in the 1st District on the Florida Panhandle, Trump stated, “Your vote in this crucial election will help determine whether the radical left will grind Congress to a halt, which is what they want to do — just stop everything, all the progress that we’ve made, which is record-setting.”
Additionally, Trump hosted a tele-town hall with state senator Randy Fine, who is seeking to succeed former GOP representative Michael Waltz, who is currently Trump’s national security adviser, in the 6th District on the state’s eastern coast.
Patronis stated in a Wednesday interview that Trump is “laser-focused” on winning these special elections, adding that he met with the president on Monday and provided him with an update on his campaign. Fine declined to comment on his race.
“He’s a winner, and he enjoys big wins.” Patronis stated, “I’m going to work as hard as I can because the last thing I’m going to do is let him down. He likes to win with confidence.”
GOP “anxiety”
Republican dissatisfaction with the party’s need to concentrate money and attention on special elections in deep-red area coincided with Trump’s tele-rallies.
According to NBC News Decision Desk election statistics, Trump won the 6th District by 30 points and the 1st District by 37 points in November. As of last fall, state voter data shows that registered Republicans outweigh Democrats in the districts by a margin of two to one.
GOP worries have been heightened by the Democratic candidates’ staggering fundraising and advertising expenditures.
“The fact that so much money is coming in from all over the country definitely causes a lot of anxiety,” Patronis stated. “And they’re pushing it into a region of Northwest Florida where, in the history of the state, no campaign has ever seen this much funding.”
According to fundraising statistics submitted to the Federal Election Commission last week, Patronis raised $1.1 million during the same period, while his Democratic opponent, gun control advocate Gay Valimont, raised $6.4 million.
The campaign for the 6th District, which had an even greater financing disparity, has further alarmed Republican officials. In the most recent fundraising period, Fine raised $561,000, while Josh Weil, his Democratic opponent, raised an incredible $9.7 million. Fine just contributed $600,000 of his personal funds to his campaign.
GOP worries about the battle for the 6th District are also being fueled by early vote figures, which show that Democrats are catching up to Republicans despite their lower registration rate. Meanwhile, the majority of early returns in the 1st District are Republicans. In recent years, a larger percentage of Republican voters tend to come out on election day, while Democrats have generally shown up in greater numbers for early voting.
During an appearance on former Trump adviser Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast on Wednesday, Fine recognized the early vote deficit.
Republicans aren’t angry, but Democrats are. We also need to enrage them. Fine added, “I know we have good election days, but we need to run up that score right now. We have to make them understand just what’s at stake.”
GOP outside groups that have been on the air in recent days have helped Fine and Patronis. Ads promoting Trump’s backing for both candidates and disparaging their Democratic rivals have been released by Conservative Fighter PAC and Defend American Jobs, which is connected to bitcoin businessmen. In both contests, a super PAC connected to billionaire Elon Musk also started spending thousands of dollars on “texting services.”
There has been no outside assistance for the Democratic candidates. The Florida Democratic Party did receive some funding from the DNC to assist with field organizers and poll watchers. This weekend, DNC Chairman Ken Martin will campaign in the 6th District, where DNC Vice Chairs David Hogg and Malcolm Kenyatta visited.
According to Valimont, the national party made a mistake by ignoring her race.
“People are saying, ‘There’s no way,’ when they look at the percentage of people who are registered Republicans here,” Valimont added. “I believe there’s a way.”
Democratic long shots
Republicans are confident that they will win both races in the end.
Speaking to reporters this week about the fight for the 6th District, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson, R-N.C., stated, “We’re confident we’re gonna win the seat.” Hudson also said that Republicans are feeling “comfortable” about the 1st District.
Democrats may find it challenging to win the races, according to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.
Jeffries stated last week that “there would normally be no reason to believe that the races will be close because these districts are so Republican.” “However, I can state with near certainty that the Democratic candidate will perform noticeably better in both of these Florida special elections.”
By taking advantage of reduced turnout, motivating Democrats, and gaining over no-party voters and even some Republicans, Valimont and Weil think they have a way to win. Both stated that some GOP voters might be swayed to their sides by Trump and the Republican Congress’s initial acts.
Despite losing to Gaetz in November, Valimont claimed that since then, the district’s discourse has shifted due to the Department of Veterans Affairs’ cuts as part of the Department of Government Efficiency, which is chaired by Musk and aims to reduce the size of the federal government.
According to the VA, the 1st District has the second-highest number of veterans nationwide and the most of any House seat in Florida. Valimont has promised to work toward the establishment of a VA facility in the district.
“It is bringing in more individuals than we anticipated, even the Trump Republicans who lost their jobs and were steadfastly in Trump’s corner. They also realize that he doesn’t give a damn about them,” Valimont stated.
Patronis stated that helping veterans would be his first priority if elected, and he supported DOGE and the federal cuts.
“All that Elon has done is make some of the absurd spending from the federal government more transparent,” he stated.
As a teacher, Weil claimed that he was motivated to run because he was worried about the Education Department, which Trump is attempting to abolish. Weil said that there are a lot of elderly people in the 6th District who would be impacted by Social Security and Medicare cuts. Census data shows that around 30% of the district’s population is over 65.
“They are now considering threats to their fixed income after voting for economic relief in the previous election. They’re considering Medicaid and Medicare cuts,” Weil stated.
Weil also released an attack ad against Fine, linking him to Musk’s remarks that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme” and accusing him of endorsing attempts to reduce Medicaid funding, though the commercial does not specifically identify Musk.
Despite the fact that Democrats will effectively oppose Musk in next week’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court race, neither Valimont nor Weil, who are running in seats that Trump easily won, have specifically criticized Trump or Musk in their campaigns for the special elections.
Weil stated, “I’m running against Randy Fine, not against them,” implying that Fine had focused his campaign on supporting Trump.
On Tuesday, polls in the Central time zone’s 1st District shut at 8 p.m. ET, while those in the 6th District close at 7 p.m. ET.
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Melissa’s career in writing started more than 20 years ago. Today, she lives in South Florida with her husband and two boys.
