Ron DeSantis addresses a crowd while President Donald Trump watches at a rally in Tampa, Florida, on July 31, 2018 – Courtesy: Shutterstock – Image by jctabb
For the time being at least, the biggest swing state in the country is becoming one of the least known.
Due to its reputation as a crucial state for presidential candidates, Florida has long hosted sizable candidate gatherings, surrogate events, and large donations from across the country that support nonstop campaign commercials in the state’s ten pricey media markets.
However, Florida has become a relative afterthought in the 2024 presidential contest for the first time in recent political memory. Although Democrats have made an effort to keep up the momentum and voter fervor in this area, almost all quantifiable factors suggest that Florida is not a serious contender for them in this year’s presidential race.
Are you content that our state is firmly Republican? During a party meeting last weekend at the Hard Rock Casino in South Florida, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis told a group of party faithful that “in the past, during presidential elections, we would be on a razor’s edge about the state of Florida.” “Because there was no way for you to win the Electoral College if Republicans could not win the state of Florida.”
Republicans have amassed a voter registration advantage of over a million, and they continue to hold a tight grip on almost all political power levers, which has kept Florida firmly red at the state level for a considerable amount of time. However, the state was seen to be winnable by Democrats in the past when enormous sums of money were donated during presidential contests.
That money has virtually disappeared:
AdImpact, a media buy tracking website, reports that more than $57 million was spent on Florida TV commercials in September 2020 alone, with $38 million coming from President Joe Biden’s campaign and $19 million from the Donald Trump campaign.
National Democratic organizations spent $2 million in the state in the 2022 non-presidential election cycle, compared to over $60 million in the previous midterm election.
TV advertisements for the presidential campaign have cost a total of $2.1 million thus far in the 2024 election cycle.
An AdImpact analysis of Florida’s plummeting political ad spending totals states, “The decrease in spending mirrors the election ratings provided by Cook Political Report, indicating that the statewide races were no longer as competitive as they had been in the past.”
The Florida Democratic Party coined the slogan “something is happening in Florida” in 2024, a reference to the fact that nobody is betting on them to win the state but that there are some indicators that, in their opinion, are cause for hope for the party’s overall infrastructure and success this year as well.
“Florida is competitive in 2024 with the work we have been doing and the grassroots momentum,” stated Eden Giagnorio, director of communications for the FLDP. “Now imagine what we could achieve with real investment.”
To date, the party has made 3.1 million phone calls, 1.3 million door knocks, and more than 10.9 million text messages. The party also highlights the fact that numerous school board candidates supported by DeSantis were defeated in Florida’s Aug. 20 primary, marking the governor’s first significant setback in years.
A document distributed by the Florida Democratic Party stated, “It’s a stark contrast to the Trump operation, which is virtually non-existent in Florida, as our organizing apparatus flexed its muscle to deliver a humiliating defeat to Ron DeSantis in the first real test of this election cycle.”
The Republican Party of Florida Chairman, Evan Power, claims that the Harris campaign’s claim that it had 40,000 volunteers in the state is exaggerated.
We keep our ground game under wraps. They employ the fictitious volunteer numbers that Nikki Fried, the chairperson of the Florida Democratic Party, has provided,” he claimed.
Danielle Alvarez, a senior aide to Trump, claimed that Florida is “Trump Country.”
She asked, referring to this reporter, “Why does NBC keep having Matt Dixon waste his time on Florida stories?” “Kamala Harris squandering her time in Florida is just as embarrassing as this.”
Public pollsters have continued to be interested in Florida, and their surveys have given Democrats a boost in their messaging and a glimpse of hope. The majority of recent public surveys have shown Trump leading Harris by 5 to 7 points, but the Morning Consult Poll, which was released last week, showed Trump leading Harris by just 2 percentage points.
Democrats have interpreted those results from public polling as evidence of momentum, but the majority of public polling has consistently placed the state outside of the 3.2-point margin Trump won in 2020—a significant victory at the time in a state where presidential contests have historically been decided by eerily narrow margins.
Veteran Florida Democrat Steve Schale contended that while the state party can still make some gains in the long run even in the event of a Harris loss, an outright victory is still difficult given the low level of expenditure in the state.
Schale added, “To the people who keep asking me if Harris can win here, the answer is complicated.” “The answer is almost certainly no without the kind of spend you need to get a win, as their math simply does not work through Florida.”
While acknowledging that Harris has an uphill battle in Florida, he said he is “realistic” about the situation and added that Democrats in the state may find hope no matter what happens.
Schale remarked, “My greatest wish is that every volunteer here goes out and registers voters.” “We’ll win if we can rebuild a workable, long-lasting infrastructure.”
Since Harris took Biden’s position as the Democratic nominee in July, her campaign has visited the state, but not before.
Following the debate on Tuesday night, Harris’s campaign is organizing a swing state tour that will include stops in Florida. However, her husband, Doug Emhoff, will be hosting the rally in the Orlando region, rather than Harris. Allies of Harris’ campaign launched the “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour in Florida last week, which Democrats hailed as an indication of the party’s national significance.
“Jacksonville showed up for reproductive freedom and the #HarrisWalz bus tour despite torrential rain and widespread flooding!” the campaign’s Florida social media account wrote following the Jacksonville event.
They continued, “F.L.A. IS. IN PLAY. #FLinPLAY.”
Stories that matter are our priority. At Florida Insider, we make sure that the information we provide our readers is accurate, easy-to-read, and informative. Whether you are interested in business, education, government, history, sports, real estate, nature or travel: we have something for everyone. Follow along for the best stories in the Sunshine State.
Chris began his writing as a hobby while attending Florida Southern College in Lakeland, Florida. Today he and his wife live in the Orlando area with their three children and dog.
