Donald Trump speaking at rally – Courtesy: Shutterstock by Matt Smith
A recent survey indicates that former President Donald Trump’s margins have shrunk in his home state of Florida.
According to a Presidential Voting Intention survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in collaboration with The Telegraph among 3,601 voters in swing states, Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden has shrunk in two significant swing states—Florida and North Carolina—since June.
In 2020, Trump had already beaten Biden in both states; that June, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey showed him leading Biden in Florida by six points.
But in Florida, he suddenly trails the incumbent president by just four points. According to the study, 45 percent of respondents said they will vote for Trump, compared to 41 percent for Biden.
There are other recent polls that show Trump leading Florida by just four points. In a June Fox News survey, Trump received 50 percent of the vote, against Biden’s 46 percent.
However, according to the poll aggregator Race to the White House, Trump leads Biden in the state by an average of eight points, with Biden scoring 41 percent and Trump scoring 49 percent.
Florida has been a crucial swing state historically, supporting Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 as well as Bill Clinton in 1996. However, in more recent times, the state has turned into a Republican stronghold. GOP Governor Ron DeSantis defeated his Democratic opponent in November 2022, receiving 59.4 percent of the vote to 40 percent of the vote.
In the 2020 presidential contest, Trump received 51.2 percent of the vote, while Biden received 47.9 percent.
In North Carolina, another state where Trump led Biden by three points in June, his lead is likewise getting smaller. The poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed that Trump’s lead had shrunk to just two points, with 44% of respondents stating they would vote for him vs 42% for Biden.
In Michigan, the survey puts Biden one point ahead of Trump.
Still, Trump’s lead hasn’t shrunk to nothing. He leads Biden by two to six points in five of the six swing states, according to the poll, which was taken before to the former president’s assassination attempt on Saturday.
In addition, since June, his lead has grown in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent candidate who does best in Arizona and poorly in North Carolina, is included in the survey as well. He polls between 4 and 7 percent in the swing states.
Even while he usually receives more votes from Biden than from Trump, the survey indicates that in North Carolina and Georgia, a little larger proportion of 2020 Trump supporters than Biden supporters want to support Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
According to the study, the majority of people in each of the six states feel that Trump has a higher chance of winning the election if he and Biden were the two major party candidates in 2024.
After his unsteady debate performance against Trump in June, during which he stammered and seemed to lose his train of thought, many have questioned Biden’s suitability for government.
Regarding the June CNN debate, among swing state voters who watched, heard, or read about it, 51–55 percent of voters in all six states say Trump won, while only 15–22 percent think Biden did.
Trump and Biden’s election in November is probably going to be a close contest. The national polling average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ puts the former president ahead of Biden by only 1.7 points.
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