Mass of ripe citrus fruits oranges in metal container and working conveyor — Courtesy: Shutterstock — Tanya Kalian
Over the next months, orange juice might become more expensive and less sweet as Florida’s renowned groves produce the weakest citrus crop in nearly a century.
This year, the state’s orange trees have been harmed by hurricane winds and a growing disease pandemic, hastening a 20-year fall in citrus production. The bulk of U.S. juice oranges are currently grown in Florida, therefore a reduced crop would reduce quality and supply.
Orange juice will likely become even more expensive due to this year’s poor harvest. According to statistics gathered by the analytics firm Nielsen, a gallon has risen above $10, increasing 17.5 percent since the start of 2022.
It might also lessen the sweetness of fresh juice. The majority of Florida’s citrus groves have been affected by the greening disease, which makes trees produce green and bitter fruits. Even ripe oranges from diseased trees have shrunk and lost some of their luscious texture.
Analysts predict that juice costs will remain high in the upcoming months. Brazilian oranges, which are in short supply as a result of torrential rains that killed some citrus trees, are generally a source of surplus oranges for American manufacturers.
“Because consumers can not afford it and/or may not enjoy the flavor, prices will remain high,” according to Judy Ganes, president of commodities research company J. Ganes Consulting.
According to her, the Florida orange supply is in a “race to zero.”
The Agriculture Department predicted last month that Florida, whose license plate displays flowering oranges, will produce 18 million boxes of citrus this season, including 15.75 million boxes of oranges. When Mediterranean fruit flies infected the area’s citrus trees and caused what the journal Science dubbed “a wave of hysteria,” the state last experienced a harvest of comparable size in 1928.
Florida consistently produced more than 250 million boxes of citrus fruit at its peak in the 1990s and early 2000s, marketing its juice as “liquid gold,” and fueling what University of Florida economists estimate is now a $6.9 billion industry.
Since the middle of the 2000s, production has been progressively declining, but this year has been particularly challenging.
At the beginning of the citrus season, which lasts from September to June, Hurricanes Ian and Nicole damaged Florida producers’ plants, causing an unusually severe weather pattern in the fall. Then, in December, Florida’s groves came dangerously close to freezing. Although cloud cover protected the state’s fruit trees from being destroyed, scientists say the weather decreased harvests.
Longer-term issues are also a problem for farmers.
In Florida since 1998, the insects that produce the incurable condition known as “greening” are a growing threat to more groves.
It is depressing, said Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, a group that represents citrus farmers. “Nearly all of us are infected.”
According to Joyner, many citrus farmers are hoping that government disaster assistance will cover hurricane damage costs. Block subsidies for citrus farmers were approved by the U.S. House on Monday as part of a package introduced by Florida Rep. C. Scott Franklin (R). The bill is currently being debated in the Senate.
Even if the weather gets better, each challenging harvest hurts Florida’s citrus industry and raises prices. According to Marty McKenna, a third-generation producer, lower output has caused some processors, who juice entire oranges and separate peel from pulp, to downsize their operations. The Washington Post reported in 2019 that between 2006 and 2016, around two-thirds of the state’s processors shut down.
“Every year, we lose processors,” McKenna claimed. “Will the infrastructure still be in place once the [greening] sickness has been eradicated?”
Former state agricultural commissioner Nikki Fried (D) has encouraged some Florida farmers to consider growing hemp or other crops instead of the state’s primary cash crop. University of Florida researchers are also striving to create citrus trees that can endure or resist greening.
Customers could have to settle for paying more for their juice up until that point or stop buying Florida oranges.
“Citrus supplies are not likely to grow any time soon,” according to Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, a provider of financial data. Simply put, “I am not sure if we are going to have the same buying zeal.”
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Chris began his writing as a hobby while attending Florida Southern College in Lakeland, Florida. Today he and his wife live in the Orlando area with their three children and dog.
