Tropical Storm in Caribbean – Courtesy: Shutterstock – Image by Drew McArthur
There is little chance that a tropical depression or storm will develop this weekend and move straight westward onto southeast Georgia or Florida’s east coast by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
According to Noah Bergren, a FOX 35 Storm Team meteorologist, such an occurrence would be “extremely rare” for June. “Historically, only three storms have made landfall from the east in June,” he stated. “The most recent was Tropical Storm Danny in 2021, which hit South Carolina.”
A gigantic heat dome over New England is the cause of this uncommon weather pattern, which creates an east-to-west flow over the southwest Atlantic Ocean. As of Father’s Day, the National Hurricane Center is predicting a 30 percent chance of tropical formation.
Personally, I believe we should apply the brakes and hold off until we know the results of Monday’s report. Nevertheless, if it did form, Bergren stated, “a very quick system would be preferred, meaning it would be in and out in a matter of hours.” This Thursday, is there a chance that a tropical storm or depression may intensify and make landfall on Florida’s east coast? Indeed. However, as of right now, I believe that even if that occurred, it would only have a minor impact and be incredibly imbalanced, chaotic, and weak.”
Regardless of development, Thursday’s forecast for central-eastern Florida and southeast Georgia includes intensified showers and storms, high surf advisories, potential beach erosion, and minor to moderate coastal flooding.
A more substantial effect is suggested by one model, which depicts a powerful tropical storm making landfall in northeastern Florida. That being said, it is extremely improbable for mid-June. The possibility of such uncommon occurrences is increased by the warm ocean waters of this season.
Somewhere else, over Central America, the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula, and the adjacent waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea, a sizable area of disturbed weather has formed.
In the following day or two, this system will develop into a wide area of low pressure over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The environment appears conducive to slow development, and by midweek, a tropical depression may form as it slowly moves westward or west-northwestward. According to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center, there is a 70% possibility that over the course of the next week, this will become a more structured system.
Alberto will be our first named system of the season if a named system forms.
For several days, there is expected to be a lot of rain in southern Mexico and Central America, which increases the risk of flash flooding and potentially fatal floods.
Two tropical waves with dispersed moderate convection are being monitored by the FOX 35 Storm Team. The waves are located in the eastern and central Atlantics, respectively. As we continue to keep an eye on the situation, check back for updates.
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Melissa’s career in writing started more than 20 years ago. Today, she lives in South Florida with her husband and two boys.
