Model view from NASA of hurricane in the Caribbean and Atlantic seas – Courtesy: Shutterstock – Image by lavizzara
The National Hurricane Center is assigning a 20 percent chance for a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, which is linked to a weather system that drenched much of Florida with heavy rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday, to develop into a depression or tropical storm over the next seven days, despite the storm not being officially classified as such.
The hurricane center stated that “heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days, regardless of development.”
Over the next four days, the hurricane center predicted that the system will cross Florida in a northeastern direction. According to AccuWeather, there could be nearly two feet of rain in certain places.
A flood watch was issued.
The National Weather Service stated that flash floods will mostly occur in isolated locations throughout the state due to the rain, with low-lying regions, roadways, small streams, and urban areas being the most susceptible.
Much of South Florida was under a flood watch by the weather service, which warned that several periods of intense rain may swiftly cause roadways and streams above their flood table to flood.
According to the weather service, rainfall totals in the Florida Keys might be as high as two to three inches by Wednesday night. Six to nine inches of rain are predicted for Southwest Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region over that same time period, with two to five inches predicted for Miami.
Rain to relieve heat and drought
As “drought conditions have steadily increased across the peninsula throughout the spring months,” according to AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham, the rain will initially be helpful. The record-breaking warmth that has been frying the Sunshine State in recent weeks will also come to an end due to the gloomy sky and rainy weather, he predicted.
Hurricane season is off to a lackluster start thus far.
There hasn’t been a named tropical storm in the Atlantic basin in 2024—this includes storms in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. As far as AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno is concerned, this is the earliest start to the hurricane season in the previous ten years. Tropical Storm Arthur was the first storm of 2014; it developed on July 1.
According to Rayno, the lack of storms in June is normal because wind shear and dry air are working together to prevent storm development in the Atlantic, which is common during this time of year.
Additionally, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist from Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic basin, if no storms form over the course of the next week, it will only be the third time since 1970 that there have been no named storms in the Western Hemisphere through June 17.
An updated prediction
Tuesday saw the release of an updated seasonal hurricane forecast by Klotzbach’s team, which essentially restated the gloomy April projection: With up to 23 named tropical storms and hurricanes probable, this is projected to be a “very active Atlantic hurricane season.”
According to Colorado State University’s release, “we anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Any hurricane with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph that is a Category 3 or above is considered a major hurricane.
The Colorado State forecast aligns with many other seasonal hurricane forecasts, predicting a busy season because of the exceptionally warm Atlantic water and the possibility of the Pacific Ocean establishing a storm-boosting La Niña trend.
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Chris began his writing as a hobby while attending Florida Southern College in Lakeland, Florida. Today he and his wife live in the Orlando area with their three children and dog.
