Cold Weather Winds — Courtesy: Shutterstock — Mia2you
Winter doesn’t exist in Florida, right? Of course, the season still exists, but not in the conventional sense of cold and snow.
Mid-September may still be a hot day, but the general trend for the winter season might be emerging.
Strong El Niño conditions are likely to persist during the winter months of December, January, and February, with significant implications for Florida.
An El Niño winter is typically wetter and colder than average. It looks like the same winter as last.
The subtropical jet stream, a ribbon of swiftly moving upper-level winds that lingers close to the tropical region, is far more active during an El Niño winter. Storm systems can use this as a route to move over the Pacific and into California, the Southern Plains and Deep South, and ultimately Florida.
Consequently, under this cycle, Florida typically experiences cooler and wetter winters.
Because of the increased wind energy in the atmosphere during an El Niño winter, significant severe weather events are also more common in Florida.
The polar and subtropical jet streams occasionally combine off or near the Atlantic coast to produce the notorious Nor’Easters, which can produce severe weather and tornado outbreaks in the South in addition to dumping tons of snow on the northern states.
Looking Ahead
Anticipating a robust El Niño, long-range climate models are focusing on an active subtropical jet stream.
The next winter months are expected to see rainfall that is above average, according to several models. The NMME model for the average precipitation in December, January, and February is shown below. Green indicates more precipitation than usual.
Warmer-than-normal temperatures are seen during the three-month average temperature anomaly. But if we take a closer look at the breakdown month by month, we can see why.
The season may conclude cold and stormy, yet fall may end and winter may begin mild.
This is the February temperature anomaly predicted by the CANSIPS climate model.
While Florida is usually the best spot to go in the winter, be aware that El Niño could bring more cold snaps and periods of severe weather in the next winter, especially in the second half of the season.
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Chris began his writing as a hobby while attending Florida Southern College in Lakeland, Florida. Today he and his wife live in the Orlando area with their three children and dog.
